2026. március 16. hétfő
IDŐJÁRÁS - angol nyelvű folyóirat

Vol. 130, No. 1 * Pages 1–100 * January - March 2026


Journal of the HungaroMet Hungarian Meteorological Service

 

letöltés [pdf: 2444 KB]
Air temperature variability during the vegetation period in Central Serbia over the last 70 years
Nikola R. Bačević, Milica G. Radaković, Milena Nikolić, Rastko S. Marković, Nemanja Tomić, Tijana Tomić, Dušan Kićović, Aleksandar Valjarević, Slobodan B. Marković, and Tin Lukić
DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2026.1.1 (pp. 1–28)
 PDF (836 KB)   |   Abstract

This study analyzes trends in three temperature variables (average annual air temperature, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature) for 72 time series from 24 meteorological stations in Central Serbia, spanning from 1949 to 2018. Data was sourced from meteorological yearbooks on the website of the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Serbia. Three statistical approaches were used: trend equation, trend magnitude, and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. GIS was applied to visualize geospatial data distribution. The results indicate a temperature increase in 66 of the 72 time series, with the largest increase of 4.3 °C and the smallest of 0.2 °C. Temperature decreases were recorded in 6 time series, with the largest decrease of -0.5 °C. The MK trend test revealed a statistically significant positive trend in 53 time series. Geospatial analysis showed varying temperatures across the region, with average annual air temperatures ranging from 10.6 °C in Dimitrovgrad to 18.1 °C in Belgrade. These findings offer insights into climate change in Central Serbia, highlighting areas of temperature increase and decrease, and provide a foundation for future climate research and strategy development.


Effects of Southern Oscillation and North Sea-Caspian Pattern on the rainfall intensity series in the Black Sea Region of Türkiye
Aslı Ulke Keskin, Reza Kazembeigi, and Utku Zeybekoglu
DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2026.1.2 (pp. 29–43)
 PDF (463 KB)   |   Abstract

This study investigates the influence of the Southern Oscillation and North Sea-Caspian Pattern on maximum rainfall intensities in the Black Sea Region of Türkiye. Annual maximum rainfall intensity series from 16 meteorological stations were analyzed, and correlation coefficients were calculated and evaluated at α = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10 significance levels. Results indicate that the Southern Oscillation predominantly affects short- and medium-duration rainfall in Sinop, whereas the North Sea-Caspian Pattern shows significant correlations with medium- and long-duration rainfall in Bartın, Bayburt, and Gümüşhane. These findings highlight the spatially varying influence of atmospheric oscillations on rainfall extremes in the region.


Statistical structure of the homogenized precipitation time series of Hungary. Part 2: Statistics of days and areas with precipitation in Hungary
Károly Tar, Sándor Szegedi, István Hadnagy, Tamás Tóth, and István Lázár
DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2026.1.3 (pp. 45–68)
 PDF (857 KB)   |   Abstract

The database of the present examination is the homogenized and interpolated precipitation time series of Hungary, which is diurnal amounts of precipitation for the 1233 grid cells, covering the area of the country for 1971–2022, in the state of the database in 2023. Firstly, the diurnal amount of precipitation over the area of the country, which is the sum of precipitation that falls in each grid cell over the area of the country has been chosen as a variable to be analyzed. Its annual and monthly characteristics have been analyzed for different independent variables. Secondly, spatial characteristics of the diurnal amount of precipitation, that is its distribution among the grid cells have been examined as well. Based on the above time series, nationwide dry, nationwide rainy, and locally rainy/dry days can be distinguished. In this article, we examine the frequency and precipitation yield of both nationwide, and locally rainy days. Precipitation tendency of an area is measured by the frequency of rainy days on the area and their precipitation yield based on the statistics of rainy days per grid. Our basic goal is to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of rainy days nationwide and locally.


Investigation of wind effect at Samsun, Zonguldak, and Trabzon airports in Turkiye
Ömer Faruk Uzun and Ramazan Gürsel Hoșbaș
DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2026.1.4 (pp. 69–85)
 PDF (522 KB)   |   Abstract

Accurate management of weather conditions plays a critical role in ensuring safe and efficient flight operations in the aviation industry. In this context, the wind factor has a direct impact on aircraft performance and pilot decision-making mechanisms, especially during landing and takeoff processes. Within the scope of the study, 16 years of wind data recorded between 2008 and 2023 at Samsun Çarşamba, Zonguldak, and Trabzon airports located in the Black Sea Region are analyzed. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) methods are used to analyze the trends of wind direction, speed, and sudden changes. According to the results obtained, the dominant wind direction at Samsun Çarşamba and Zonguldak airports was determined as east (E), while a dominant wind effect was determined in the south-southwest (SSW) direction at Trabzon Airport. The study reveals the effects of wind factor on flight safety and operational efficiency and provides recommendations for the measures to be taken in the aviation sector and future practices.


Spatiotemporal trends in wood decay risk across European Russia (1961–2020): A Scheffer Climate Index analysis
Elena Vyshkvarkova and Olga Sukhonos
DOI:10.28974/idojaras.2026.1.5 (pp. 87–100)
 PDF (478 KB)   |   Abstract

This study evaluates the risk of wood decay in cultural heritage sites across the European part of Russia by analyzing climatic influences on timber deterioration. Timber, a critical component of many heritage structures, is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in air temperature and moisture, which accelerate biological decay processes. Using the Scheffer Climate Index (SCI) – a metric based on average monthly temperature and the number of precipitation days –, the research assesses decay risk over the period 1961–2020 with daily data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The SCI was decomposed into temperature and precipitation components, and trends were quantified using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, with analyses performed for both the 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 periods. Results reveal a southwestward increase in SCI values, with the highest risks (SCI > 100) along the Black Sea coast and Caucasus. Notably, northern regions, home to key heritage sites like Kizhi Pogost, exhibited statistically significant upward SCI trends (up to 0.6/year), driven primarily by rising temperatures. Between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, low-risk areas decreased by 9%, transitioning to moderate risk, while high-risk zones remained stable (~13%). Temperature contributions to SCI increased by 5–20%, whereas precipitation impacts declined, except in northern regions. Sequential analysis highlighted trend onset in the 2000s, particularly in the northwest and Caucasus. These findings underscore a rising climatic threat to wooden architectural heritage and emphasize the need for enhanced conservation strategies to mitigate future decay risks.




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